Hypotheses

The Lean Startup notion of hypotheses
  • Also ‘assumptions’, but I like the term hypothesis better because it emphasizes that we don’t take a side as to whether it is true or not. We specifically want to generate evidence that will either prove or disprove it.
  • Testable: You need to know how you would test it
  • Explicit: You need to be able to state it succinctly (on a post-it note)
Types of Hypothesis - there are lots
  • Customer: Who is the customer? Where would you find them?
  • Problem: What is their pain? What is the ‘job’ they are ‘hiring’ a product to do?
  • Solution: What kind of solution are they seeking? What features do they need? Will this solution actually address their problem?
  • Pricing: Different tiers, prices, different customer segments
  • Technology: What kind of computer, connectivity, sophsitication do they have
  • Habits: “They do …”
  • Growth Hypothesis: what ways will new customers discover the product? Why will they keep using it?
  • Value Hypothesis: Assuming use, in what ways is the idea delivering value to the customer?

The point is, don’t get too hung up on classifications. What is important is the idea of formulating testable hypotheses, running experiments, and updating your plans accordingly.

Hypotheseis examples for discussion of B20
  • Customer hypotheses
    • What type of small, owner operated, retail shop, needs this the most? What do they sell?
    • What specifically are the franchises that they compete with
  • Problem hypotheses
    • Have inventory that no one buys
    • Run out of popular inventory
    • Want to reward frequent shoppers but have no way to
    • Wants to cut down on shop lifting
    • Wants to honor competitors coupons but has no way to
    • Wants a way to know which workers (or cahiers) are working hardest, generating most refvenue, or making customer happiest
    • Wants to simply know WHO their customers are
  • Solution Hypothesis
    • A simple way to provide loyalty points or card
    • An app that runs on a dedicated tablet
    • Use facial recognition to personalize service
  • Leap of faith hypothesis
    • Shop owners realize that they have trouble competing with franchised businesses
Hypothesis examples for discussion for SBC
  • Customer Hypoteses, examples:
    • International Students
    • Science Students
    • Male or female students
    • Maybe they’re not students at all!
  • Problem Hypotheses
    • Person is strapped for cash
    • Looking for a way to meet people with similar interests
    • Collector of (DVDs, Watches, etc) wants to find like minded people
    • Student wants to start a little on-campus enterprise and needs a way to market to classmates
  • Solution Hypotheses
    • Product for local merchants allowing them to offer coupons
    • Facebook group that students join
    • Site Targeted at Student clubs
    • Portal marketed to the University for incoming students
    • Match Making site matching students with merchants
  • Leap of Faith Hypotheses
    • Merchants or sellers are looking to access student market
    • Students have spare $ and want to get good deals
    • No legal or regulatory or Brandeis administration rules broken
Hypothesis examples for discussion for P2PTours
  • Customer Hypothesis, examples:
    • Young american tourists visiting europe
    • Schoolchildren
    • Asian business travelers in the US for the first time
    • Have smart phone
    • Spend less than 1 day
  • Problem Hypotheses, examples:
    • No professional guides available
    • Professional guides are too expensive
    • Can’t find someone with the point of view I am looking for
    • Blind, so can’t read guide books
  • Solution Hypotheses, examples:
    • Two sided web site allowing tour leaders to find visitors
    • Service offered to travel agents as a value added option
    • B2B Service allowing a local agency to create a directory of tour guides
    • Location Aware Smartphone app with peer to peer
  • Leap of faith hypothesis:
    • Part of your vision and hard to test
    • If this kind of hypothesis turns out to be false then you will certainly need to pivot
    • These are also the riskiest assumptions